Market Shock

เนื้อเรื่อง

Recently, stock market is so bear and very sensitive to released news. I've studied about how to analyse the price of any stocks using top down approach. During the period, I went through a lot of research papers and wondered if that really came from a stock's fundamental since a lot of reseach papers provide a target price that really closed to market price. I think in the period of Lehman's bankruptcy announcement, the reason why many stock prices went down was panic. It was psychic more than any companies' fundamental. However, still, I saw research papers that gave the price even lower than market price in panic situation. I have a chance to analyse and calculate fair prices but the result shown that my calculated price is higer than current market price even I changed my asspumtion to be more conservative, the result was still the same, higher than market price. That brings me some questions, is the market affected by the price analysts posted on the research papers? what will happen if analysts provide the stock price really based on companies' fundamental (get rid of psychic effects)  and these are a beginning of my writing.

I, personally, agree with top down approach but I think it cannot explain the panic in the market. I think if a compny is good, no matter how bad the market is, its stock price should have not be as low as currently. And the reason why many analysts came up with very low fair price maybe either they over-reacted to the news released and they put too much bad figures on that companies or they just wanted to make their calculated stock price close to current market price to earn a trust from the investors. What will happen if we study on the market and be able to come up with an equation, reasons, or a way to eliminate psychic effect out of top down analysis approach?