I Predict Humanity Will Fail in Resolving Climate Change

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8 January 2023

As we all know, our earth is now facing the crisis of climate change. The temperature rises, weather becomes more violent, disasters become more severe, and so on. We, humanity, claiming ourselves as the most intelligent specie on earth, have again and again confirmed that this is the direct consequence of our own actions. We are now depleting resources that earth itself has accumulated for tens of millions of years so fast that they may be all used up before the next millennium, while producing pollution so much that the climate pattern is disturbed to a degree never seen before since ice age. We all internally acknowledge this fact. We all know we have to do something about it. Humanity has come together to lay out plans after plans to alleviate the situation, meetings after meetings, deadlines after deadlines, and yet I am here to proclaim my prediction that humanity will never be successful in preventing or even slowing down climate change. The inevitable is unavoidable.

What makes me so confident in such prediction? My main argument is based on the “Prisoner’s Dilemma”, one of the topic in Game Theory. The dilemma is usually presented as a story involving two prisoners, prisoner A and prisoner B. They were captured by the police at the robbery scene. The police suspected that, aside from robbery, they also committed weapon violence. Unfortunately, there were not enough evidence, so the only way was to have the prisoners themselves confess. Hence, the police put prisoner A and prisoner B into separate cells and offered each of them a deal:

• If you confess but your friend does not, you will go free, but your friend will be in jail for 5 years.
• If you do not confess but your friend does, your friend will go free, but you will be in jail for 5 years.
• If you confess and your friend also does, you both will be in jail for 3 years.
• If you and your friend remain silent, you both will be in jail for 1 year.

From us outsiders, it is clear that to get the best outcome, both prisoners should remain silent. This way, both of them will be imprisoned for 1 year each, and the total years in jail will be 2 years. On the other hand, the worst possible outcome is for both to confess, when they both will be imprisoned for 3 years, resulting in the total imprisonment of 6 years.

However, Game Theory predicts that, assuming prisoners were both rational, that exact worst possible outcome would occur. The reason is simple. Each prisoner, rational as he was, not knowing what the other was up to, thought:

• If my partner does not confess, I have 2 options. If I confess, I will be free, but if I do not, I will be in jail for 1 year.
• If my partner does confess, I also have 2 options. If I confess, I will be in jail for 3 years, but if I do not, I will be in jail for 5 years.
• Whichever my partner chooses, if I confess, I get the better outcome. Hence, I shall confess.

So both of them confessed.

The real horror of this story is in the fact that being rational does not help in the least to prevent the worst situation from happening. What is needed is trust. If the prisoners trust each other, they will both stay silent, trusting that their partnerห will do the same, acknowledging the fact that they both will have to stay in prison for 1 year, but accepting it, recognizing it as the best outcome for themselves as a whole.

Now, the situation regarding climate change is more complicated; for one, most countries view their own contribution to climate change as negligible, so when it is weighed against economic growth and such, the latter takes precedence. The statements become somewhat like this:

• If other countries take action on climate change, my country has 2 options. If I take action, my economic growth will worsen and be on par with them, but if I do not take action, my economy will be good and win over those countries which take action. Regardless of what I do, its result on global climate change is negligible.
• If other countries do not take action, my country also has 2 options. If I take action, my economy will lose to them, but if I do not take action, my economy will stay on par with them. Regardless of what I do, its result on global climate change is negligible.
• Whichever other countries do, if I do not take action, I get the “better” outcome. Whatever I do has negligible effect on the earth anyway.

And in this way, each and every country will choose to not take action, and the worst possible outcome on climate change will inevitably occur.

Again, the only hope for humanity to salvage this already sinking situation is trust and consideration for the best for the whole. One might argue that since this situation affect humanity as a whole, why would humanity itself not stay as one and try to resolve it together. Well, history has shown over and over that humanity had never succeeded in doing anything as one. It is already extremely rare to find any groups of more than ten people whose members share the same visions and are willing heartily to follow through with the group decision. In fact, this was exactly how and why governing systems such as democracy and law were developed in the first place; there were always the opposing sides, so there needed a way to choose which direction the group would take, and a way to punish those whose opposition stance was so strong as to resort to violence.

One recent obvious example of how humanity tried to become one to resolve something and failed epically was COVID-19. Since the spread started in 2019, every person knew (albeit some refusing to acknowledge) that it was a threat to humanity as a whole, and no sane (rational) person would argue against a movement to unite and supporting each other in fighting it. Yet, the only reason humanity still exists now in 2023 cannot be described as anything else but sheer luck, as even with such threat, what countries did was blaming each other. Pharmaceutical companies raced for profit. Rich countries hoarded more vaccines than it can swallowed, then sold out the near-expiring stock to poorer countries when it was too late. Political parties took advantage of the situation and constructed propaganda to discredit opponents regardless of whether it had to do with the disease or not. People prioritized their freedom over their peers’ safety. All sort of disgusting traits of humanity revealed themselves. We did not win against COVID-19; we did not even get close. We are here today because Mother Nature was kind enough to make COVID-19 symptoms become milder. If not for this, who would know how long will it take until our lost civilization be discovered by other intelligent species in the future.

As for trust among countries, it is probably an insult to your knowledge to even start giving examples of its non-existence, as we all well perceived it since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022.

To give more substance to my prediction, let us make a bet. Paris Agreement is one among several attempts of humanity to resolve the climate change problem that has not yet past the deadline. Having 194 parties as members as of current (overlooking some members that pop in and out of the agreement like cuckoo clocks), it is probably one of the most promising arrangements humanity has ever arranged regarding the issue. One of the goal required to satisfy this agreement, although not so clearly stated and thus is subjected to political rephrasing when the deadline arrives anyway, is that the emission of greenhouse gas be cut at least 55% by 2030. Now, in 2023, even the blinds can clearly see that most if not all countries do not even try to reach that goal. However, it would probably be an insult to not believe that the most intelligent specie on earth will not arrive at some solutions within the timespan of 7 years from now. So there you go: can humanity cut the emission of greenhouse gas 55% by 2030? I bet not.

In addition, I put an extra bet that after the goal is not met, no one will ever reconsider their policies. In Prisoner’s Dilemma, after each prisoner is subjected to 3 years of imprisonment, he may regret his decision, knowing that his confession caused his partner to be in jail longer. In humanity case, no such thing will occur. Each country will point finger, create propaganda, and do everything except accepting itself at fault. Blame game is the game humanity is best at since its creation after all.