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ลำดับตอนที่ #65 : Oil price 'may have bottomed out'
It said lower
oil output in the US and other countries was helping to curb the glut in the supply of oil.
The
increase in supply from Iran has also been less dramatic than first feared, the
IEA said.
Oil
prices have plummeted
70% since June 2014, falling as low as $27 per barrel earlier this year.
The
IEA, which coordinates energy policies of industrialised nations, said it now
believed non-Opec output would fall by 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016,
compared with its previous estimate of 600,000 bpd.
US
production is forecast to decline by 530,000 bpd this year, it said.
"There
are clear signs that market forces... are working their magic and higher-cost
producers are cutting output," the IEA said.
Supply and demand
There has been an
oversupply of oil from booming US output in recent years, thanks to the spread
of fracking.
Meanwhile, members of
the oil-producing cartel Opec have been reluctant to cut supply in order to "put a floor" under
the the oil price, for fear of losing market share against higher-cost producers.
These two factors sent
oil prices tumbling
at the end of 2014 and throughout 2015.
Lower demand for oil
from China, the world's second-largest consumer of commodities, has also hurt oil prices and
prompted fears of a global economic slowdown.
Many of the major oil
firms have reported dramatic falls in profits and cut back billions of pounds
in investments in exploration, while at least 5,000 jobs have been lost in the
North Sea oil industry over the last 18 months.
Prices hit a 12-year
low in January, but have since recovered to about $40 per barrel after leading
Opec nation Saudi Arabia and top non-Opec producer Russia said they could
freeze output.
Brent crude on Friday was 1.9% higher at $40.79,
while US West Texas Intermediate oil was 2.5% higher at
$38.77 per barrel.
The IEA said Opec
output fell by 90,000 bpd in February because of production outages in Nigeria, Iraq
and the United Arab Emirates, which lost a combined 350,000 bpd.
"Meanwhile,
Iran's return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it
would be; in February we believe that production increased by 220,000 bpd and provisionally, it appears
that Iran's return will be gradual," the IEA said.
Iran has promised to
add as much as one million bpd to global supply after securing a deal with the
West in January that has seen the easing of international sanctions, imposed on the
Islamic Republic over its nuclear programme.
Seeking 'balance'
The IEA said inventories
in industrialised member countries of the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) had declined in February for the first time
in a year, although crude
in floating storage increased.
"For prices,
there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel, but we
cannot be precisely sure when in 2017 the oil market will achieve the
much-desired balance. It is clear that the current direction of travel is the
correct one, although with a long way to go," the IEA added.
While demand for oil
reached a near five-year high in the middle of 2015, prompted by lower prices and countries such
as China and India building up stockpiles, it has slowed significantly since the start of the
year.
And the IEA warned:
"The risks to global oil demand growth are almost certainly on the
downside."
It said it expected
demand to be flat in the US, the world's largest consumer of oil, this year.
And it said demand
could weaken "if prices maintain their recent upward momentum".
Demand in China was forecast
to grow by 330,000 bpd this year, well below the 10-year average of 440,000
bpd.
"We expect India
and other smaller non-OECD Asian economies and the Middle East to provide most
of the 2016 growth. The foundations for global demand growth are sound, but not
rock-solid," the IEA said.
stabilize (v.)
If something stabilizes, it becomes fixed or stopschanging:
curb (v.)
to control or limit something that
is not wanted:
glut (n.)
a supply of something that is much greater than can be soldor is needed or wanted:
plummet (v.)
to fall very quickly and suddenly:
fracking (n.)
a method of getting oil or gas from the rock below the surface of the ground by making large cracks in it. Fracking is short for "hydraulic fracturing".
reluctant (adj.)
not willing to do something and therefore slow to do it:
tumbling (v.)
to fall quickly and without control:
to fall a lot in value in a short time
to move in an uncontrolled way, as if falling or likely to fall:
commodities
(n.)
a substance or product that can be traded,
bought, or sold:
outages (n.)
a period when a service, such as electricity, is not available:
provisional (adj.)
for the present time but likely to change:
sanction (n.)
an official order,
such as the stopping of trade,
that is taken against a country in order to make it obeyinternational law:
a strong action taken in order to make people obey a lawor rule, or a punishment given when they do not obey:
approval or permission, especially formal or legal:
(v.)
to formally give permission for something:
crude (adj.)
simple and not skilfully done or made:
(n.)
oil from rocks underground in a natural state that has not yetbeen treated
prompt (v.)
to make something happen
prompt sb to do sth
to make someone decide to say or do
something:
to help someone, especially an actor, to remember what they were going to say or do:
(adj.)
(of an action) done quickly and without delay, or (of a person) acting quickly or arriving at the arranged time:
(n.)
a sign on a computer screen that shows that the computer is
ready to
receive your instructions
words that are spoken to an actor who has forgotten what
he or she is going to say during the performance of
a play
(adv.)
at the time stated and no later:
stockpiles
(n.)
a large amount of food,
goods,
or weapons that are keptready for future use:
(v.)
to store a large supply of something
for future use:
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